Scott Becker from Global Wine Partners on Napa Valley’s Future

Ed. Note:  I have been profoundly impacted by a simple little treatise in book form called Reset: How This Crisis Can Restore Our Values and Renew America by Kurt Andersen.  It’s a gem of a book, a scant 96 pages and an equally quick read.  I’ve read it three times, each time highlighting, dog-earing and writing notes as it inspired thought.  Several more references to this book will likely make their way to this blog in the near-term.

The premise of Reset is that the U.S. has been in a go-go period since the Reagan years (1982) – a period of time in which everything grew including the disparity between rich and poor, the size of our houses, the quantity of consumer choice, our spending habits, waistlines and more.  And, while this cyclical growth has wrought much havoc in the form of present day circumstance, our current economic period offers great hope.  Noted Andersen, “it’s the end of the world as we’ve known it, but it’s not the end of the world.”

According to Andersen, citing the Schlesinger Model:  “we are now at the start of the fifteenth alternating cycle since the founding of the United States, currently making yet another of our periodic shifts from an unfettered zeal for individual getting and spending to a rediscovery of the common good.”

Andersen suggests that we all possesses a duality of spirit much like the Grasshopper and the Ant in the old fable – we are irrepressibly fast and wild coupled with a practical ingenuity, common sense and an ethos of hard work.  And, now, we are shifting from a sustained period of acting like the Grasshopper to a time of needing to be the Ant.

Andersen continues (excerpted): “… the possibility of a radical reshaping of not only economic and financial systems but also the ways that Americans think about their country and themselves … to a great extent, our national future will unfold over this century according to the collective and individual choices we make now.”

“As the recession ends and the sense of crisis fades, we mustn’t lose our freshly, painfully acquired ability to think the unthinkable.  We need to keep the downside risks in mind … it’s just as important – and maybe more so – to imagine the unimaginable on the upside.

Andersen’s ultimate message is one of hope and belief in the American spirit.

With that in mind, I asked Scott Becker from Global Wine Partners for his thoughts on this period of time in Napa and what it means for the future—a Kurt Andersen-like analysis of wine, if you will. 

Scott was quick to provide compelling insight, while also noting that Napa’s success isn’t the result of one man; perhaps symbolically, but not literally.  He cited Andre Tchelistcheff, Mike Grgich, Jack Cakebread, amongst many others as being key to the success of today, and historical precedent for what happens tomorrow.  Here are Scott’s full comments.

Napa Valley’s Next Chapter

With the current recession affecting fine wine sales, many industry observers have questioned whether this period of time marks the end of a chapter for Napa Valley.  In my opinion, the new chapter began in May of last year, before the financial meltdown last fall.  It was something more fundamental than economics that changed Napa Valley.  The passing of Robert Mondavi marked the end of an era, but also the beginning of a new chapter full of opportunity.

Mondavi was the face of Napa Valley for decades and projected the young region into wine stardom through the sheer strength of his passion and personality.  Mondavi was to wine what J.P. Morgan was to finance or, more recently, what Bill Gates was to computers.  He was exactly what the Valley needed at the time—a visionary who inspired a generation. 

And, while the Napa Valley wine industry has matured over time, it’s still youthful in comparison to parts of the Old World like Bordeaux or Barolo.  And, yet, the Valley isn’t as freshly scrubbed as Mendoza or Mendocino.  Without question, as Napa grows into middle-age, what the Valley needs now is different than what it needed during Robert Mondavi’s lifetime. The next chapter for Napa Valley will not be defined by one man.  No, the next chapter will be defined by the network of relationships that capture the essence of the Napa Valley.  These relationships exist at all levels—producers, distributors, importers, retailers, consumers, media and many others. Between each level we will continue to interact in ways never before possible due to continuing changes in technology and regulatory barriers.  This communication will lead to transparency, which will create increasing authenticity allowing additional growth and development between Napa Valley and “me too” brands. 

However, more professional talent will be required to manage the network and mine the data, the glue that binds the relationships.  Speaking of data, the next chapter will need more of it.  Scanner data and depletion reports won’t be enough to readily understand what is happening in the market for fine wine.  The shift from a production focus to a market focus will accelerate through this next chapter.  We can expect continued consolidation in the distribution channel, which will inspire some to find still more innovative ways to reach the consumer.  In short, Napa Valley will need to develop the systems and the talent to support a maturing, complex industry in an increasingly competitive market, while leveraging its strengths in infrastructure and reputation.

This is not to say that Napa Valley will lose the heritage and culture that has made it so great.  The challenge is to figure out how to capitalize without compromise.  In other words, how to capitalize on the opportunity before us without compromising on what made Napa Valley great in the first place—special terroir and special people.  Robert Mondavi, and others like him, laid a solid foundation.  The next generation of leaders in Napa Valley must continue what he started but also take it to a new level.  And, while Napa Valley will no longer point to one man as the ideological leader, Napa Valley will continue to evolve for the better because we all succeed when everybody is invested as a stakeholder.  Just as we have seen the “wisdom of crowds” in other industry segments so too will we see it in Napa.  Leading the way will be the tapestry of the Valley working together—the vineyard hand, the cooperage, the winemaker, and the solar panel installer, the wine salesman, the distributor and the social media director who, together, with a unified desire to become better, more sustainable, with a shared goal of excellence, will allow Napa Valley to continue to flourish while letting Mondavi and his legacy live on throughout this next adventurous chapter.