February 4 2008
Finally! We have been watching the convergence of a number of wine trends and, finally, they converge into some coherence in mainstream press.
The Sacramento Bee had an article last week (found here) highlighting Wine & Spirits magazine Editor Joshua Greene’s comments from the Unified Symposium. The gist of the article is encapsulated in the first two paragraphs:
The wines you’ll be savoring five years from now are being picked today by enological trendsetters barely old enough to drink.
But what they’re looking for – wines that are quirky, regional, with rich background stories – isn’t what the mainstream domestic industry seems to be selling today.
I have been waiting to see this come together. Many trends are colliding to bring something of a perfect storm together that—naturally—will move the influencer segment of the wine market away from the so-called “Parker wines.”
When I say naturally, I am talking about the evolution of the market and not some big bang theory based on any single person or incident.
Consider:
1) Twentysomething’s are adopting wine at a positively alarming rate
2) Twentysomething’s are pre-disposed to armchair travel vis-à-vis their wine choice—they drink more imports than domestic
3) Restaurants, for the most part, are a young persons business and restaurants are increasingly bestowing deserving Wine Director/Sommelier responsibility to those in their twenties.
4) There is an increasing marriage of food and wine in our popular culture and that wine in the pairing is more often the balanced, elegant and acid-friendly wine, instead of some of the ripe, alcohol-laden, fruit-forward California-style wines
5) Food and drink trends (and almost all trends) are a pyramid—they start at the top and get bigger as they go broader
If you combine the above and accept it as fait accompli and you look at sales numbers that indicate that imports are the fastest growing segment in wine and that, according to the article, imports represent about 43 percent of wine sold at restaurants, than it is easy to believe that this broad trend will reach broad consumer adoption and naturally offset the notion of ripe, “fruit bombs” or wines that are associated with Parker’s palate.
I don’t think, however, that the future business ramifications on California wine are as dire as many would have you believe because there will also be increasing segmentation in the market which means that even if there is an ideological shift away from “quote, unquote” New World-style wine, there won’t necessarily be a business shift away from those kinds of wines.
However, I do believe, as evidenced above, that we are going to see a popular shift away from what is deemed as “Parker’s palate.” The easy analogy is Merlot. Prevailing wisdom amongst those in the know is that nobody is drinking Merlot, but sales figures indicate differently. The same will happen with the “Parker’s Palate” notion. People will still drink ripe wines, but they will not be in vogue.
Folks in the wine industry like to take credit for things so let me state this as a matter of factual intent—when the backlash fully storms the beach against stylistically ripe, extracted fruit-forward wines with low acid it will because of broad trends around food and wine pairing and influencers in the on-premise market that are young and import minded. It will not be a result of any single person, winemaker or documentarian lashing out. Jonathan Nossiter, Randy Dunn, et al – I am talking to you.
What is going to be funny about this is the anti-Parker people are going to claim victory, while at the same time Parker’s palate is going to shift and he, undoubtedly, will be rewarding wines with more classical distinction—and, when that happens, my friends, we’ll fully understand what it is that makes wine so much fun—it’s a riddle wrapped up in a mystery; a place where the young can eat the rich and what you knew yesterday may not mean much tomorrow.
Posted in, Free Run: Field Notes From a Wine Life. Permalink | Comments (4) |
Let the revolution begin. Speaking as someone who has toiled in the “industry” for 25+ yrs, I welcome the change that the twentysomethings are taking to the wine marketplace. If it affects the manipulated, overripe, “overalcoholed”, opulent sap bombs (read Napa Cabernet) that command 90+ scores and ridiculous prices, then bring it on. The “New World” style is here to stay though; fruit forward and low acid is entrenched in many of the wines coming from Italy, Spain and France. I think/hope that over time scores will be less influential and great value will dictate the marketplace. Props, by the way, to Randy Dunn and the handful of others who are railing against their winemaking peers for sacrificing the identity of their wines for higher scores. It’s no mystery that higher alc.=higher scores=higher revenue, the riddle is finding the balance between art and commerce, what else is new. But I, for one, am excited to see quality wines coming from emerging regions.
Bill,
As always an astute comment. I agree that other winemakers calling out their peers for hoary activity is a good thing, but I’m also aware that the wine industry, like many other industry’s, likes to bestow a crown to individuals for thought-leadership.
And, in this situation, I don’t think a critical move away for “fruit bomb” wines will be because of any one person.
Though, one thing is for sure, it makes for interesting dinner conversation amongst those that follow these issues.
All the best,
Jeff
Now if we could just get the distribution channels opened up so that people in Omaha or Cincinnati would be able to taste some of the stellar wines made in our own country.
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I can’t say I disagree much with your prognostication skills. Nice post.