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The Setting Sun on Luxury Wine

The wine sector “trading down” phenomenon has been much discussed.  While true and accurate, what hasn’t been discussed is the intangible and psychological aspect that may also be involved in a consumer flight to less expensive wine. Consumers might simply be tired of gilding somebody else’s lily.

In the dot-com era I worked for an Internet consultancy—the kind of place that charged a couple hundred of bucks an hour for consulting and projects under $150K were deemed too small to bother with.  We had dozens and dozens of Aeron chairs, a symbol of excess for that era.  And our offices … they were nice!  There was the requisite pool table, a de-commissioned race car hanging from the ceiling, and all of the accoutrements that said, “We’re important.”  The offices were too nice, in fact.

As a sales guy, inevitably, the first thing that would come up in a negotiation for a contract with a potential client would be the office space.  They would say, “Wow.  This is more expensive than I expected.  I guess you guys have to pay for that race car, huh?”  Annoyed sarcasm from clients aside, those were the good conversations, many were much worst.

The place really started to come undone when the CEO only started showing up 1/2 the time, driving his $80K car, while he managed a house remodel. Rumors ran rampant about the salary he was paying himself whilst the rest of us were underpaid to the market because, “it’s a start-up.”

The point is, internal to an organization, money is a fragile conversation.  Externally, people wanted the output of the project, but they didn’t want to pay for the trappings, real or perceived. 

Now, certainly, by way of analogy, I am not giving the bogeyman totem to luxury wine producers (those priced $25 and above), but I do want to point out, as a consumer, that there may be some rational avoidance of luxury wines that has nothing to do with saving ten dollars on a bottle.

We may just be tired of Aeron chairs that are expensive for the sake of being expensive and helping somebody else earn their next million. 

As the Wall Street Journal noted in a recent article on the luxury wine market (excerpted):

The slump continues as Americans continue to drink more wine overall.  Recession-weary consumers, however, are buying more mid-and low-priced wines, causing a sharp falloff in sales of wines priced at $25 a bottle and higher.

Total U.S. wine sales rose about 5% in terms of volume in the first quarter from a year earlier, but wines priced at $25 a bottle and up fell about 12%, estimates Jon Fredrikson, an industry consultant with Gomberg, Fredrikson & Associates in Woodside, Calif.

So, we’re drinking more wine, but we’re buying less expensive wine.  Certainly the economic travails of our own pocket books are a prime suspect, but more importantly, is it safe to suggest that we don’t know what goes into wine pricing and, perhaps, many people, me included, don’t want to pay for somebody’s office space, or the wine equivalent – the luxurious trappings of the tasting room and/or the wine lifestyle?

As author and wine writer Thomas Pellechia noted to me, “Luxury wine pricing has always been and will always be based on what you can get away with charging.”  And therein lies the rub.

In a savvy consumer society when times are flush many of us will buy the more expensive bottle, even if it’s materially not worth the extra money.  I’ve never met anybody that could blind taste a wine and identify a price discrepancy in between a $25 and a $50 bottle, let alone the difference between a $40 and a $90 bottle.

image

Anything over $25 bucks is pricing for pricing sake.  To keep up with the neighbors, to get into a certain category at a restaurant, to justify yields and allocation, what have you …

Pellechia continues, “At $3000 a ton for grapes the raw material for a bottle of that wine will cost the winery $4. This is based on tonnage price alone, not on variety. If a variety costs as much as $9000 a ton, that’s $12 a bottle for the grapes (each ton gives about 150 gallons each; each 12 bottle case is about 2.38 gallons). Factor in the cost of bottles, labels, capsules, closure, and overhead, etc., it couldn’t possibly come out to $50 a bottle beyond the cost of grapes–could it?”

So, that’s the problem the wine industry is facing.  A thinner pocketbook, yes, but also the perception that what a consumer is paying for isn’t rationalized with a good reason for that cost.

I’ve done much research into wine pricing – academic textbooks and Internet research.  Nowhere, aside from a winery start-up spreadsheet, and a pithy graphic from wine negociant Cameron Hughes, is there any good information on how pricing is set for a luxury wine.

image

Circumstantially I know that wine pricing is more pig-in-a-poke than science, and by the facts this seems to be the case, as well.

According to a 1994 pricing strategy article in Wines & Vines magazine:

Ultimately, the pricing strategy used for marketing wines should be a function of the demand for wine.  Consumers are not directly concerned with the cost structure inherent in producing a commodity they are interested in purchasing.

Maybe 15 years ago “they” weren’t.  In 2009, I think “they” are.

Pellechia continued:

Of course, many wineries have to pay for that fabulous facility and their investor returns, and they have to also account for their volume – lower volume productions means having to charge higher prices in order to make a profit.

Luxury pricing is never, ever based on cost to produce …

In the aforementioned Wall Street Journal article it notes that many luxury producers are cutting prices, going on to say:

image

But such price cuts are taking a heavy toll on wineries’ cash flows, and could make it difficult for them to raise prices in the future.  “If you’re a $90 wine and all of a sudden you’re on the Internet at $50, how do you ever become a $90 wine again?” says Elliot Stern, Chief Operating Office of The Sorting Table, a Napa Valley-based wine distributor.

This certainly begs a couple of questions from a consumer perspective. If Fred Franzia is to be believed, that no wine is worth more than $10 a bottle, and demand for the high-end no longer outstrips supply, how DO you ever become a $90 wine again? 

The ultimate rhetorical question is: Do you have to be a $90 wine?



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Posted in, It Seems to Me .... Permalink | Comments (60) |


Comments

On 08/06, 1WineDude wrote:

FABULOUS writing!

I had a conversation (relatively) recently with a well-respected M.S.  He told me that, in his experience, no wine should EVER be priced more than $80 per bottle.  Even the Ch. Yquems of the world, who have enormous production costs, shouldn’t be pricing above $80.  Bottom line is that price is a function of supply & demand, and most wines cost what the do because we’re willing to pay that price…

On 08/06, Josh wrote:

First my requisite compliment, which is warranted and well deserved: great post.

Had a problem with this though:

“Anything over $25 bucks is pricing for pricing sake.  To keep up the neighbors, to get into a certain category at a restaurant, to justify yields and allocation, what have you …”

There are structural reasons for the high prices on Napa Cabs and Russian River and Sonoma Coast pinots. 100 and over, I agree, it is pure luxury pricing. But 25? Ludacrisp!

Whether these wines are “worth” the prices they command (or don’t command) and whether they are providing value is another question.

But I could not, and would not ever do the winery thing if the most I could hope for is $25 a bottle. The math just doesn’t work. Moreover it would not be the highest and best use of the grapes, which we can sell for well over 4K / ton or crop up to 6 tons an acre and sell as sparkling at Russian River average per ton prices. Indeed, thats how we financed the build out and made the vineyard profitable in the first place.

The general rule of thumb is: divide the per ton price by 100. It isn’t exact, but it is close. Or at least it used to be.

If prices stay down long enough the land the vines are on and the per ton price will come down as well. Farmers will go under, those who bought and planted based on revenue projections from the past 10 years of high prices.

Then we’ll have consistently lower prices. But not until then. :-(

On 08/06, .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) wrote:

Jeff - as always a great post and very thought provoking.  I agree with winedude - the same argument could be made with virtually every other luxury good on the planet.  I mean, should a pair of Manolo Blahnik shoes cost $450?  Probably not.  Does my wife want a pair - Absolutley! 

Josh’s point is a good one too - he’d never even be able to break even with the amount of overhead he has to incur while waiting for his product to come to market. 

From my perspective, wine is a lifestyle choice and the consumer is the ultimate decider if more than $25 is too expensive for a bottle of wine.

On 08/06, Jeff wrote:

Thanks for the comments, guys.  I appreciate it.

There were several points I wanted to get in the post that I didn’t, mostly owing to trying to keep it to a manageable length.

Maybe I’ll do a part II.

Chief among those points were related to allocated wines, qty. in case load and balance sheet marketing.

I acknowledge that pricing is related to supply, but what happens when supply is available? 

Josh has insight into on the ground economics related to viticulture that I don’t have, so I’ll grant that there is a level of generalization to $25 as a luxury threshold, perhaps $40-45 is the marker based on production, but I chose to go with what is the generally accepted marketing perspective on price threshold for a luxury wine - $25

Bill—always love it when you drop a comment.  Wine is a lifestyle decision, but I would not be surprised if our preconceptions of expensive for a bottle of wine doesn’t flatten out in the near term with a much longer term impact.  That Endeavor is a beautiful wine, but consumers may only be willing to pay $55 for that luxury in the future.

One of the points I edited out of the post is a notion I’ve been kicking around about “balance sheet” marketing.  If Josh is right, and I believe him to be, then a potential marketing tactic is to help consumers understand the inputs that go into a wine that cause it to cost what it does because, mostly, what else do you do when expensive wine seemingly isn’t differentiated from less expensive wine?

Just some thoughts.  Thanks again for the comments!

Jeff
http://www.goodgrape.com

On 08/06, Thomas Pellechia wrote:

Jeff,

Your final thought might work for wines priced under, say, $75. But I doubt the explanation a winery could provide for wines priced higher would do much to make consumers feel comfortable that the cost to produce justifies the retail price.

In any case, whether good or bad luxury wine will be here to stay as long as wine remains a lifestyle decision rather than a daily food item.

Jeff didn’t quote me on this, but if you knew the mark up on a man’s suit (and the mark up on one with a designer label) you’d go nekkid.

On 08/06, .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) wrote:

Okay, now you’ve touched on something near and dear to my heart.  I like your verbiage -“balance sheet” marketing too. Another word that comes to my mind is transparency. 

At any rate, I’ve been giving this a lot of thought lately.  What would a marketing plan look like that incorporated the acutal inputs that go into making a bottle of wine?  Farming costs, barrels, glass, corks, capsules, bottling costs - the list is endless.  But then I think, does the consumer even care?  Would I just bore them to tears and ultimatley take the fun and romance out of wine?  After all, what makes wine so incredible is the nuanace and authenticity behind it.

But, getting back to your point, this balance sheet marketing idea is an interesting one.  I think I’ll kick the tires a bit and see what happens.

On 08/06, .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) wrote:

I’m in the business and we will sell out this year of our wines even though they are above $50 per bottle.  So will many other producers.  Is it easy?  No.  Do you have to hustle more.  Yes.  Does your wine have to really excite people?  Yes

All of the doom and gloom on this downturn is just as ridiculous as the expectations when it was booming.  I can’t wait for the first article/blog that says “Wine business booming-  Consumers are trading up again!”  It will happen and I guess we are all supposed to act surprised when it does.

Isn’t everyone getting tired of the hyperbole in the media?  Every snow storm is now “the storm of the century”.  The banking sector just turned in record profits and many are lining up to hand back the TARP money.  Weren’t we just told that the collapse of global banking was eminent?

My last diatribe is on the cost thing. Grapes are only a part of the cost of wine.  Packaging, labor, taxes, compliance, shipping, travel, selling expenses, sampling, marketing, equipment, cooperage, etc..  You get the idea.  High end wines may cost $25-$40 plus to make.  And yes the business owner should get a profit as well.

Please keep in mind that if you see a bottle on the shelf for $50 the winery sold it for $25 to the distributor.

It isn’t that there aren’t serious concerns out there, but we don’t need to make them worse than the really are.

On 08/06, Jeff wrote:

David,

Thanks for your comments.  If my deduction is correct, I assume you are the same David Rossi from Fulcrum wines.

http://enobytes.org/wine_blog/2008/05/21/an-interview-with-david-rossi-fulcrum-wines/

I’m not discounting what you are saying, but at a macro level I do believe we are undergoing a societal shift in how we view the stuff that we buy.

I’m an information hound and read much of the same things you do while trying to make sense of it all.  A very good book that I’m reading right now is called “Reset” by Kurt Andersen.

It’s a quick, brilliant read and something that may align our respective POV’s.

http://www.kurtandersen.com/reset.html

All the best,

Jeff

On 08/06, Dr. Horowitz wrote:

I work at a winery in kenwood that is having a 50% sale today.  Other wineries in kenwood are doing this too. 

I wonder if/when wineries will lower prices.

On 08/06, .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) wrote:

Jeff your deduction is correct.  I usually don’t list the winery to avoid and risk of sounding like I am promoting anything.  I also want to clarify that I don’t think that everything is just fine.

We also have been using free shipping promotions and are launching a lower priced offering next year in reaction to some of the marketplace forces you rightly point out.

My thesis is just that these things happen and we have to roll with the punches and get through it.  And we will get through it.  All of us.

I’ll check out the book.  Thanks.

On 08/06, David Honig wrote:

There are two other factors at play worth noting- cheaper wine is much better than it used to be.  There was a time when a $15 (today’s dollar) bottle of wine was almost guaranteed to be plonk.  Today, a $15 bottle of wine is likely to be pretty good.  Will it have ethereal properties of a properly stored 25 year old Bordeaux from a great year?  No, but what the heck does that have to do with this conversation? 

The other factor is the standardization of wine.  As wineries chase points, particularly Robert Parker points, they produce an certain type of wine that is replicable year after year, with little hint of terroir or vintage.  That allows less expensive wines to chase the same flavors.  This means, once again, that the difference between $15 and $50 just is not what it used to be.

Does this mean every $15 bottle of wine is as good as any $75 bottle of wine?  No. Of course not.  But it does mean the consumer is less likely to be willing to pay the $60 difference.

That is not the whole story, but when times are tough and money less available, I suggest it is part of it.

On 08/06, .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) wrote:

I gotta ask this - how many wine industry folks actually regularly spend $50 or $75 on a bottle of wine - even factoring in our standard 30% industry discount?

I would venture to guess VERY FEW.  Why? Because you don’t get rich working in the wine industry and it’s hard to spend that much on a bottle of wine if you’re eating left over spaghetti with your wife.

This comment is not really relevant to the conversation but I just think it’s kinda funny that us wine people are probably also some of the most savvy, price sensitive shoppers.

On 08/06, .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) wrote:

I don’t think luxury goods are going away. Everyone didn’t all of a sudden learn that they don’t need to pay the asking price based image or on a couple critics 95 point scores. The customers are still out there, they just paused for a few months.

I think we are seeing the effects of six months of incredible uncertainty. Was there a bottom?  How bad will it get? Do we face a depression? But we are now coming out of it, and the pocketbook will loosen.

No luxury buyer calculates the costs and determines whether it is, or is not, worth it. Instead they say, “It is the best, I can afford it, I deserve the best.” Luxury goods have always represented reverse elasticity of demand, i.e. the higher the price the more people want it.

Last weekend I visited Chandon for a quick glass of bubbly. It was mobbed. These people were not thinking about cost structure or value. They were living it up like the world was about to end.

On 08/06, Fred wrote:

I have to agree with Morton about the behavior of luxury wine buyers. I would add that,just because a winery sells a “luxury-priced” wine does not make it a luxury brand. Far too many “boutique” or “artisanal” labels confuse the two.

A true luxury band is impervious to market fluctuations. While the price of its offerings may rise and fall, price alone does not define it. Nor does the opinion of critics.

A true luxury band never allows its worth to be determined by “others,” as is the practice in the wine industry.

I guess what I’m saying is: there are very few true wine brands and even fewer true luxury wine brands.

On 08/07, Todd Hansen wrote:

Okay, since the conversation is becoming comments on the comments, I’ll jump in ....

David Honig:  Your comment called to mind one of my favorite quotes—in Lawrence Osborne’s “The Accidental Connoiseur,” Neal Rosenthal of Mad Rose Group says “Let us have thousands of unique wines, not a few dozen that all taste the same.”  I think a shift toward artisan products (as opposed to luxury), be it cheeses, handbags, pies or furniture will endure through this recession and bounce strongly on the other side. 

To Bill Smart, I suggest that many in the wine industry spend a disproportionately high amount of their incomes on wine!  And while they aren’t all luxury wines, they’re mostly better than average.

On the subject of costs of production, as a grower (and small producer) I am frustrated by the percentage of expenses in this industry that really only serve to burnish the image of a “brand.”  As a consumer (and producer) I focus on QPR, and not so much on PR.  Perhaps the consumer will focus more on the Q in QPR as a result of this round of collective belt-tightening?

And Josh hit the nail on the head when it comes to land prices and their effect on cost of production and quality of wine.  A house on the beach in Malibu will cost multiples of what a house costs in Compton.  And if you build a house on the beach in Malibu, you need to build a quality house to justify the cost of the land.  (There are many variables in this equation, however.)  The point is that good wine begets higher prices which drives up the price of the land and its fruit - and site matters.  (Yeah, I’m a grower.)

On 08/07, .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) wrote:

Clearly, very few people who posted really know what’s entailed in producing a bottle of wine, esp. for boutique producers who are not Sutter Home.  If you’re talking about a true luxury wine, grape prices range $6-8k per ton, then there are crushing & storage fees, wine insurance isn’t cheap either, consulting winemaker fees, and your paying all this for 2 yrs + another 4 months of aging & bottle storage.  Oh, let’s not forget about $3-$4/btl in packaging. Then, after your money is done being tied up for over 2 yrs., you still pay insurance, storage, marketing, sales people. 

This article & comments are too generalized.  It costs a small producer $25 - $35/ btl.  Before…. attorney fees, accounting costs, marketing , sales, deivery fees, .... I could go on.

On 08/07, Vinogirl wrote:

Great thought provoking post as usual.
I work in a ‘premium’ Oakville winery. Recently our CFO broke down the cost of our top end Cabernet for us all. The profit margin is immense (of course we grow all our own fruit). Whilst shocking it wasn’t exactly a surprise.

On 08/07, Jeff wrote:

Hi Bridget,

Thanks for your comment.

I wrote the post from the point of view of an educated consumer.  The point of the post is nobody really understands what goes into a bottle of wine and therefore there may be a psychological “trading down” separate from saving a few bucks on a bottle—the tangible dollar savings reason.

In doing so, people are making a conscious decision to not support prices for which they have no rational insight into.

What I left out of the post and I may write about separately is the notion of “balance sheet” marketing—a notion of transparency from the winery to help a consumer understand why a bottle of wine, say, $85, though seemingly no different in quality from a $25 bottle of wine, is so expensive.

What causes the spread in the $60 in price?

Until this is answered in the minds of consumers I think you’re going to see a flattening out in the high-end for wine.

Thanks very much for commenting!

Jeff
http://www.goodgrape.com

On 08/07, Josh wrote:

BR,

I think the sentiments expressed dovetail with what you are saying.

You criticism of the commenters is, ironically, too generalized. What statements exactly do you take issue with in the comments?

The costs you list are fairly fixed. Winemaker (and keep in mind not every boutique producer wants or needs a consulting winemaker), insurance. storage, crush, sales are all similar for whatever wine you might want to produce. Barrel costs (to a point) and grape prices are the most variable and generally move directly with wine quality.

So I don’t think anyone is over generalizing, they are just focusing on the main driver of costs: grapes.

On 08/07, .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) wrote:

One should also look at the recent agrobank study on American consumer habits.  Those California wineries that are under the belief that this is just a temporary storm to ride out until the next party (bubble economy) starts up are in for a huge shock.  Agrobank concluded that the wine buying habits that American consumers are adapting in the current economy will continue long after any economic recovery.

And while this may be bad for Napa Valley, it is good for America.  We can’t consume more than we produce anymore (negative savings rate anyone).  Napa will need to abandon its pretensions and precious arrogance and adapt to the changed consumer landscape or it will become increasingly irrelevant.

On 08/07, Josh wrote:

Chris,

Actually if we become a nation of savers it will be bad for everyone. It will mean fewer jobs, less growth etc.

Economists are already saying that folks are saving too much to support a recovery that includes job creation.

No argument from me about the need for arrogance to go away, but the economy is and always will be cyclical. There will be another bubble. It will come from something no one predicted, and might even be rational - at first. But it will come.

On 08/07, Ted Henry wrote:

Can’t we all go back to hating on restaurant wine markups?

I think one thing left out of this is the risk that the winery takes on in this process.  I buy grapes and make wine out of them hoping every day that nothing goes wrong.  In the real world things do go wrong and a fermentation sticks,you get a Brett problem, tank overflows, Hi VAs, oxidation etc.

Product that gets bulked out, declassified lost or dumped should be factored into bottle cost.

-None of these things actually happen to me I’m just sayin’...

On 08/07, .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) wrote:

Stuck tanks, Brett and VA, Ted?  You know that’s the formula for a 95+ Parker score.

Josh,

I understand your argument to a point.  Yes, I agree that the American public’s sudden realization that irresponsible spending is a recipe for disaster has led to an overreaction in the opposite direction.

At the end of the day, however, we do need to become a nation of savers (say the 10% rate that held in the 80s), and while that may slow the economic recovery, it will make the one that does appear much more stable.  I liken the need for Americans’ need to start saving now to a heroin addicts’ need to go through withdrawal.  Yes, the transition is painful, but the person (or nation) is ultimately much healthier in the long run.

If Napa/Sonoma can’t adjust to this, then let the new market dynamics deal with them…harshly.

On 08/07, Jeff wrote:

Hey Chris,

I tried to message you privately, but the email address you provided bounced.

I would love, LOVE to read the Agrobank research report, but couldn’t track it down online.

Can you provide a link or a pointer to the name of the report so I can search?

Thanks much,

Jeff
http://www.goodgrape.com

On 08/07, .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) wrote:

Hi Jeff, I couldn’t find a direct link.  I do remember reading about the study through winebusiness.com, so their news archives should have something in the last couple of months.

Given the recent report that half the mortgages in the country are underwater, it would make sense that Americans are going to be much more cautious consumers for the foreseeable future and long after the current recession has passed.

If not, and they immediately start partying (and spending) like its 1999 again, well then I think this country will fully deserve the next massive crash that befalls it.

On 08/07, .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) wrote:

Interestingly, I found a link to a large article in Time magazine that touches on the long term systemic changes to American consumption habits that might be forming.

Here’s a link to a marketing blog discussing the article.  Actual article is linked in first paragraph.

http://www.socialmediaexplorer.com/2009/04/27/will-the-recession-change-our-buying-habits-for-good/

I found this quote particularly prescient.

“What this piece, and a lot of the accompanying statistics, might indicate is that our society is waking up from the self-indulgent bender of the last 50 years and shifting to a more sensible way of living. What that might mean to marketers is that premium is no longer chic.”

On 08/07, .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) wrote:

Here’s a link to a study by metlife that reaches the same conclusions on a macro level.  That this recession, financial collapse has scared many Americans profoundly and that they are changing their long-term consumption habits in response.

http://www.metlife.com/business/insights-and-tools/industry-knowledge/metlife-study-of-the-american-dream/index.html?WT.mc_id=vu1234

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